By Jide Akinseye
Nigeria’s food inflation rate spiked to 12.12 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, reversing the single-digit level recorded in January and signalling renewed pressure on household food costs.
This is according to data by the Consumer Price Index report recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics which showed that the indicator increased from 8.89 per cent in January 2026 to 12.12 per cent in February, representing a rise of 3.23 percentage points.
The February figure pushed food inflation back into double-digit territory after January’s sharp slowdown, which had marked the first single-digit reading in more than a decade.
Despite the increase from the previous month, the latest figure remains significantly lower than the level recorded a year earlier.
The NBS report states that, “The Food inflation rate in February 2026 was 12.12 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 14.86 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.98 per cent).”
On a month-on-month basis, food prices rose by 4.69 per cent in February, reflecting a resurgence in short-term price pressures across food markets. The statistics office attributed the increase to rising prices of several staple items across the country.
The report further stated that the spike was “attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of essential food items, like Beans, Carrots, Okazi Leaf, Cassava Tuber, Crayfish, Millet Flour, Yam Flour, Snails, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – dried ungrinded, cow peas, etc.”
The surge in cost according to Farmers drove the rise in the prices of food, and however called for intervention from the government to curb the spike in food prices across the country.
The monthly rebound suggests volatility in food markets, as longer-term indicators point to a substantial easing in food price growth compared with the previous year. The NBS said the average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 stood at 19.08 per cent, representing a sharp drop from 37.40 per cent recorded in February 2025.
However, State-level data showed significant variations in food price movements across the country. On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 26.91 per cent, followed by Adamawa at 23.12 per cent and Benue at 21.89 per cent.
Conversely, Katsina recorded the slowest increase in food prices at 5.09 per cent, while Bauchi and Imo posted 7.09 per cent and 7.65 per cent, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa recorded the highest increase in food prices at 8.81 per cent, followed by Ebonyi at 8.51 per cent and Edo at 7.72 per cent.
Data from the report showed that the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.0 in February 2026 from 127.4 in January, reflecting a 2.6-point increase within the month. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices of goods and services consumed by households.
According to the bureau, the inflation rate also declined sharply on a year-on-year basis. “The February 2026 Headline inflation rate was 11.21 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.27 per cent),” the report noted.
However, despite the yearly slowdown, prices rose faster on a monthly basis. The NBS said the month-on-month inflation rate stood at 2.01 per cent in February 2026, compared with a decline of 2.88 per cent recorded in January.
“This means that in February 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in January 2026,” the bureau explained.
The statistics office further noted that food prices remained the largest driver of inflation, accounting for the highest contribution to the headline index. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 6.03 percentage points to overall inflation, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.95 percentage points and transport at 1.61 percentage points.
Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels accounted for 1.27 percentage points, while education services contributed 0.93 percentage points to the headline index. Urban inflation remained slightly higher than rural inflation during the period under review.
The report further stated that on a year-on-year basis, urban inflation stood at 15.53 per cent in February 2026, significantly lower than the 28.49 per cent recorded in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate increased to 2.55 per cent from a decline of 2.72 per cent in January.
The NBS stated that rural inflation also declined on a yearly basis but rose compared with the previous month. Rural inflation was recorded at 13.93 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, compared with 22.73 per cent in February 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased to 0.71 per cent in February, up from a decline of 3.29 per cent recorded in January. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also declined on a yearly basis.
The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the slight drop in inflation was largely driven by seasonal demand factors rather than structural improvements in the economy.
Egbesola said, “I think the reason for the marginal reduction in the inflation rates is well imagined, and I think it’s because you would agree that until this recent time, there’s been some stability in effects, which definitely would drive down inflation. At the same time, we are now in the post-holiday season, so demand has reduced because the Christmas and New Year period has passed, and purchases are not very tight.”
He stressed that the marginal decline was not enough to warrant celebration among small and medium-sized enterprises. “For us as Small and Medium Enterprises, I don’t think it is a call for celebration yet because the reduction is still very marginal, and of course, the major driver of inflation, which is food, is still there, and energy costs remain high. Food and energy are big issues for SMEs, and they are still high,” he said.
Egbesola added that the current inflation figures have not translated into relief for businesses or households. “At the moment, this is not reflecting in businesses, this is not reflecting in the livelihood of the common man on the streets, and this is not reflecting in the prices of goods, commodities, and services. Prices continue to go higher, particularly with the recent increase in fuel prices,” he lamented.
He urged the government to strengthen monetary policy measures to ensure inflation moderates further and begins to benefit businesses. “The government needs to firm up monetary policies so that they can maintain this inflation rate and possibly get it reduced further. That is the only way we can begin to see a trickle of benefits. We should not be celebrating on paper or in surveys; the results should reflect in the realities of businesses and the lives of citizens,” Egbesola said.
He also warned that rising global energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could push inflation higher in the coming months. “Yes, we foresee an increase in inflation in March driven by the war going on in the Middle East. We are already seeing the effect in terms of the cost of energy and even the cost of inputs that are imported from other countries, and it will reflect in the March report,” he said.
