By Jide Akinseye
The changing weather pattern caused by climate change, global warming and rising temperatures are altering atmospheric conditions is increasingly making it difficult to predict rainy season.
to this effect, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency has predicted a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba States in 2026.
The forecast was made known by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo, during the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction and the 2025 State of the Climate in Nigeria, held on Tuesday in Abuja.
Keyamo said NiMet projected an early onset of rainfall in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States, while a late onset is expected in Borno State.
He however noted that rainfall cessation would be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States. However, a delayed end of the rainy season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States, according to the News Agency of Nigeria
The agency also stated that, parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are projected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season, while a normal annual rainfall amount is anticipated across most parts of the country when compared to the long-term average.
NiMet also forecast above-normal rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory. In contrast, below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.
The agency made it known that severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun States during the March-to-May season. Moderate dry spells are expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kogi and Kwara States.
Also, in June–July–August season, NiMet also predicted a severe dry spell that could last up to 21 days in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.
The Little Dry Season, also known as the August Break, is expected to begin by late July and be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States. The number of days with little or no rainfall is projected to range between 28 and 40 days, while a moderate effect is anticipated over Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.
NiMet further stated that both daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May.
Despite reports of early rains in parts of southern Nigeria, the Federal Government cautioned Nigerians not to interpret the recent rainfall as the official commencement of the 2026 rainy season
Keyamo said, “We have already seen some significant rains across the southern parts of the country this year. Let me reiterate that these should not be taken to mean that the rainy season has started in these places. Those engaged in rainfed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities in Nigeria are therefore advised to refer to the predicted onset dates in this publication or consult NiMet for proper guidance.
He described the Seasonal Climate Prediction as a critical national planning tool, noting that NiMet had received commendations in recent years for how the use of SCP information improved crop yield and supported disaster risk mitigation.
The impact and effect of climate variability and climate change remain daily realities of modern times, shaping aviation safety, economic decisions, national security planning, food security, infrastructural development, and the well-being of our people,” Keyamo said, stressing the need to embed climate science and early warning systems into national development planning.
